Robert Maltbie Jr., CFA guest contributor to Fox Business News, CNBC, Bloomberg, Barron’s & Wall Street Journal, Columnist for Forbes.

Robert Maltbie Jr., CFA, Managing Director of Millennium Asset Management, is a frequent guest contributor to Fox Business News, CNBC, Bloomberg, Barron’s & Wall Street Journal, Columnist for Forbes. Managing Director & Founder of Singular Research Chief Investment Officer for the Argonaut Fund V.P. Investments & Portfolio Manger at Smith Barney 1992-1999  

Wall Street View – Robert Maltbie Jr., Millennium Asset Management

Robert Maltbie, Jr. Portfolio Manager for Locorr Investment Trust

Robert Maltbie, Jr. is a Portfolio Manager for Locorr Investment Trust – LoCorr Long/Short Equity Fund, an open-ended equity mutual fund launched and managed by LoCorr Fund Management, LLC. The fund is co-managed by Millennium Asset Management and Billings Capital Management. The Locorr Investment Trust takes both long and short positions to invest in public equity markets across the globe. The fund seeks to invest in stocks of companies operating across diversified sectors. It primarily invests in value stocks of companies across all market capitalizations. The fund employs fundamental analysis with a bottom-up stock picking approach to create its portfolio and was formed on May 13, 2013 in the United States.  

Robert Maltbie Interviewed by Barron’s

2 Unloved Stocks to Buy And 3 To Dump (or Short)

Millennium Asset’s Robert Maltbie likes to buy hidden gems and bet against overhyped growth stocks. Robert Maltbie began his career as a retail stockbroker for Dean Witter and quickly learned that there was more to job than understanding the nuances of buy and hold ratings. He saw firsthand the inevitable conflicts of interest posed by investment banking, and came to recognize the steep odds against individual investors. [Read more…]

Robert Maltbie Jr. Highlights 2 Unloved Stocks to Buy And 3 to Dump (or Short)

Robert Maltbie Jr. began his career as a retail stockbroker for Dean Witter and quickly learned that there was more to the job than understanding the nuances of buy and hold ratings. He saw firsthand the inevitable conflicts of interest posed by investment banking, and came to recognize the steep odds against individual investors. So in 1999, he set out on his own, launching Calabasas, Calif.-based Millennium Asset Management, specializing in smaller, underfollowed companies on the long side and bigger companies on the short side. In 2005, he founded Singular Research, which now sells small-cap research to Fidelity Investments and other big money managers. Four years ago, Maltbie returned full time to his first love, managing money. Today, Millennium Asset Management manages about $150 million, including a hedge fund called Argonaut Partners, which began operations in 2005. Last year, Maltbie, 55, launched a mutual fund called LoCorr Long/Short Equity I (ticker: LEQIX). Both buy undercovered smaller companies that have historically traded at a 20% to 30% valuation discount and short mid- to large-cap companies whose prospects Maltbie thinks are deteriorating. After a strong performance out of the gate, the LoCorr fund is down sharply this year as investors sell off smaller companies. Some of Maltbie’s holdings also had growing pains, including Advanced Emissions, the largest position in the LoCorr fund. But Maltbie is staying put in the sector, arguing that eventually institutions will discover the charms of the names he owns, prices will climb, and the companies will be added to the indexes. The LoCorr fund’s longer-term performance, he maintains, will rebound: Argonaut, which is almost “a mirror image,” has returned 11.3% a year since inception, versus 7.4% for the Russell 2000 and 0.53% for the HFRX Equity Hedge index. As the market rises, Maltbie’s research is also turning up a number of short positions. To learn what they are, keep reading. Barron’s: Ouch! What happened withAdvanced Emissions Solutions (ADES), the largest position in your mutual fund, which delayed filing its annual report as it looks over its financial controls? Maltbie: We own companies that are underfollowed and underknown. This was news that we’ve known about and we’ve been ready. It’s an adjustment on the timing of when they’ll receive revenues, and it will impact just 7% of revenues. We were accumulating shares. Advanced Emissions provides clean coal technology and helps customers meet increasingly stringent emissions standards from the EPA. That should serve as a catalyst to drive rapid earnings growth. We think the company can earn $1.50 a share this year and then $2.00 in the year 2015. We think the stock will get to $30 from $23 now. Q: What is your market forecast? A: We’ll see another 5% to 15% upside to the S&P 500. This is a year for stockpicking, both long and short, in a market that’s pretty fairly valued. There’s a bullish case based on strong net inflows averaging $20 to $40 billion a month, and that’s even after these big IPOs. The breadth of the market has been strong during the selloffs. Also, the relative value is compelling versus all other alternatives, especially corporate bonds, which are yielding 4%, versus an earnings yield of 5%. Back in 2000, the earnings yield was about 3% to 3.5% on the S&P 500, and the corporate bond yield was 7%. The oldest market rule I’ve ever come across is don’t fight the tape, and don’t fight the Fed. The Fed, despite all the news about tapering, is still stimulating the economy. We look at adjusted M2 [money supply] and compare that to GDP growth and to inflation. Right now, we are getting 2% above GDP growth, meaning the Fed is still stimulating the economy. That’s confirmed by something people forget to look at any more, which is the slope of the yield curve. That’s positive and bullish. There’s a 250 basis point spread between the short and long end. So we are 70% net long right now. Q: So what do you like? A: LSB Industries (LXU). This is a $37 stock. Our target is in the high 40s in the next 12 months. It manufactures chemical products for the agriculture, mining and industrial markets, as well as commercial and residential climate control products. That second business could potentially be spun off. Their fertilizer business is benefiting from global population growth and a change in diet in the emerging markets to more beef consumption. They are adding fertilizer capacity in the U.S. In the climate control business, they are benefiting from a rebound in real estate markets. They have a strong balance sheet. They’ve had a couple of setbacks with their plants. The Pryor, Oklahoma plant had to be taken out of service. They recently announced that they’ve completed the work and resumed business. They’re also spending to create a new ammonia plant. That will expand earnings power. The market cap is $850 million. We think they earn $2.80 for this year, and the earnings power could be $4 to $5 in the next couple of years. Q: Tell us about your short positions. Q: Workday (WDAY) trades at $67 a share. The market cap is $12.3 billion. Our 12-month target is $45. They provide financial human resource ERP accounting software in the cloud, an off-the-shelf solution for small and mid-sized companies so they can eliminate the cost of a fully staffed IT department. The revenues are growing very strongly. It’s the ultimate growth stock, unrealistically overpriced, overhyped, over-covered. It’s off from its highs but there’s a lot more to go. It trades at 30 times sales, a big premium to Salesforce, another cloud outsourcing company that trades at 8 times sales and has better margins. We think it won’t have positive EPS until 2016 at the earliest and we’ve given them the benefit of the doubt, assuming 20% net margins, which would still put the stock at 100 times [our earnings estimate] when it starts making money. One cofounder has sold more than 50% of his personal holding. Institutions are starting to get very nervous, and have reduced their holdings. But Wall Street is bullish. Among the 28 analysts, there are no sells. Part of this is politics — many firms want to stay in the good graces of VCs and their pipeline of upcoming IPOs. Q: How much could it fall? A: It can fall in the next 12 months from $67 to $45, where it will still trade at about 10 times sales. But a haircut by a third would bring it in line with the recent correction in other growth momentum stocks. Q: How about another? A: Sure, Abbott Labs (ABT) is a $39 stock. Late last year, Abbott split into two parts. They spun off their research pharmaceuticals business, AbbVie, and maintained the established pharmaceuticals, nutrition, diagnostic and vascular segments. The separation reduced Abbott’s exposure to the U.S. and to many of the new burdens associated with health-care reform. It also reduced their exposure to the high margin research pharma business. That will reduce returns on equity and invested capital for the go-forward company. Also, growth will be slower than consensus because nutrition, a key segment, is seeing declining trends in developing markets. There are product quality concerns in infant formula, particularly in emerging high growth markets like China. Sales have slowed, a trend that is expected to continue through mid year. So we expect revenue and earnings growth will be below consensus. The recent results support our thesis. Overall first quarter 2014 revenues were down 2.5% on weak performance in established pharmaceuticals, nutrition, and medical devices. Only the diagnostic segment saw positive revenue growth. Adjusted earnings of 41 cents a share were ahead of the Street estimate of 36 cents, but below last year’s adjusted EPS of 42 cents a share. Q: And so — A: Many investors in large caps have an ROE hurdle. This Abbott won’t meet their screens. And Abbott is still rich, trading at a major premium to the S&P 500 on expected earnings this year, despite lower forecasted growth. If you just check on Yahoo Finance, the stock sells at 24 times earnings, versus 17 times for the SPDR S&P 500(SPY). We have a target of $30. Declining growth should compress its multiple. The stock is benefiting from the de-risk trade, but that’s only temporary relief from a secular decline. Q: Last pick? A: Pandora Media (P) is at $22. Our 12-month target is about $17. It’s overvalued based on its growth outlook. The subscriber growth rates are diminishing and there is very much increased competition. Growth in active users continues to slow. Listener hours increased only 12% in the first quarter compared to 16% in the fourth-quarter and 35% a year earlier. Pandora finished 2013 with 76.2 million active users, up almost 14% from the previous year, but this pales in comparison to the 41% growth rate in active users in 2012. Much of this is the result of the law of large numbers, but new competition in the market may be starting to have some effect as well. The competition from Apple is well documented, but there is also Spotify, which many people prefer, and Google. All are aggressively vying for a piece of this market, and each has distinctive, competitive advantages. And the way Pandora is growing might rub users like me the wrong way. Q: How does it rub you the wrong way? A: More commercials. Right now, they’re running about two to three minutes per hour, which is still way below 15 minutes for commercial radio, but that’s starting to increase. They’re going to double that. The risk is the users. They may not like additional ads and iTunes is only a click away and Google Play has no ads and offers its own radio mix. And more and those are coming preinstalled. Q: How do you get to $17? A: We project Pandora to grow revenues of 30% in 2015, and we believe the stock will still trade at a high multiple. We think it could generate earnings of about 55 cents a share. [On a GAAP basis, it lost 23 cents a share in 2013.] Applying a 30 multiple gives us about $17. Q: Thanks, Robert.

Robert Maltbie, Jr., Managing Director and Portfolio Manager

Robert Maltbie, Jr., is a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager of Millennium Asset Management, an investment advisory firm, that manages client portfolios and manages The Argonaut Fund, a small-cap equity fund. He is also Chairman and CEO of Singular Research, Inc., which provides research reports on publicly-traded companies.Robert began his career as an investment adviser withMorgan Stanley Dean Witter in 1988 and later joined Spear Financial in 1992 where he created and managed its equity research department. In 1994 Robert joined Salomon Smith Barney in Beverly Hills, California where he managed growth portfolios for private and institutional clients. Robert graduated from UCLA with a Bachelor of Arts degree in Political Science in 1981. He has also earned the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a member of the Association for Investment Management and Research.

Robert Maltbie Interviewed by USA Today

S&P 500 flirts with new high; Dow can’t keep up

Matt Krantz, USA TODAY Source: www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/03/21/sp-500-dow-jones-high/6707501/ The Standard & Poor’s 500 made another run at new highs Friday, but the Dow is struggling to bring up the rear. An early-day rally pushed the S&P 500 into all-time record ground briefly, toppling the former high notched two weeks ago. The good feelings didn’t last — a late-day sell-off knocked the S&P 500 down 6 points to close at 1866. The Dow has lagged the S&P 500 for more than a year, and remains 1.6% away from its high set at the end of last year. The difference speaks about what’s moving the market now. “The Dow has a very low representation of things moving the market, like . . . Netflix, social media stocks, solar stocks and biotech,” says Robert Maltbie of Millennium Asset Management. “There’s (low) exposure to that” in the Dow. The Dow’s underperformance isn’t new. The S&P 500 is up more than 20% over the past 12 months, easily topping the 13% gain of the Dow during the same period. But savvy investors are looking at the differential to yield clues about where the market is headed, including: •The rise of new leadership. A new crop of relatively young companies and industries helps the S&P 500 more than the Dow, Maltbie says. Facebook, which is up big-time, is just one example of a stock that’s in the S&P 500 and not in the Dow. Shares of the No. 1 social networking company are up 23% this year. Meanwhile, the Dow is heavily weighted toward older companies that are lagging, such as IBM. Nearly 100 S&P 500 stocks are up 10% or more this year, says Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. •The biotech boom. One of the biggest boons for markets this year is biotech, an industry to which the Dow has relatively low exposure. Despite a big sell-off Friday on worries the government might look at biotech drug pricing, biotech darling Biogen Idec is up 14% this year. Health-care stocks, including biotech, are up 5.2% this year, Silverblatt says. The S&P 500 benefits more from this since health care accounts for 13.4% of the index, versus just 10.3% of the Dow, Silverblatt says. •The rotation into financials. Movement into financial stocks gives a slight edge to the S&P 500 over the Dow, says Chris Johnson of JK Investment Group. Investors not chasing high flyers like biotech are moving into the safety of financial stocks. Financial stocks are up 2.6% this year. That again gives the S&P 500 an edge since financials account for 16.5%, vs. a 15.9% weighting in the Dow. All these reasons explain why the Dow is down 1.6% this year while the S&P 500 is up 1%. Investors will need to decide if the Dow’s divergence from the S&P 500 is a sign of over-bullishness or a trend that stays in place. “It’s a process where the market can show some weakness,” Johnson says.

Strategic Asset Allocation Report : Cracks in the Wall

Cracks in the Wall

January 17, 2014 As the usual market pundits chime in unison that “it is a bull market until it isn’t”, cracks in the wall are beginning to appear… Click here for full PDF report.    

Welcome

Welcome to Millennium Asset Management, a California based Registered Investment Adviser specializing in fee based Portfolio Management and sophisticated investment strategies for high net worth individuals and selected institutional clients.
CLICK HERE TO REGISTER for access to select Premium Content.

Robert Maltbie, Jr. Stocking Up – Dances With Bulls, S&P to hit 1600 by year end

The stock market may look toppy to some, but one seer who took a contrarian bullish stance on the market last summer thinks it still has plenty of room to run. Robert Maltbie Jr., founder of Singular Research, a bottoms-up, research shop that focuses on small-caps, and owner of Millennium Asset Management, an institutional hedge fund near Los Angeles, thinks the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index could hit 1,600 by year end. That would be a nice 20% return for investors. Maltbie allows that it’s more of a stockpickers’ market, but adds that individual investors’ exposure to equities is at a “generational low” of 37% of all assets. A more typical percentage is 50%-plus. The manager, who was correctly bearish on Goldman Sachs, Washington Mutual and Bank of America during the meltdown, notes that while there are some indications of frothiness in the market, particularly new stock issuance and the ratio of insider selling to buying, other indicators that Singular uses to make its market calls such as earnings momentum and revisions, suggest a market multiple closer to 16. That’s far more robust than the current 14 multiple, based on earnings estimates of $95 a share for the S&P this year. Maltbie also thinks S&P earnings will come in at $100. Another possible lift to the market? Rising S&P dividends, where the 26% payout ratio is less than half the 54% historic average. He still likes small-caps, noting that 55% of all domestic equities with P/E multiples under 10 have market values of $500 million or less.